← Tsunami Simmons Winter Outlook

Every El Niño since 1950, lined up against hurricanes and Northeast winters

Strength from NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index. Hurricane counts from the National Hurricane Center. Snowfall and precipitation from the NWS Central Park, NY record, used here as the Northeast benchmark station.

0 of 80Atlantic seasons since 1946 without a hurricane. 2026 could be the first.
~5 vs 7Hurricanes in a typical El Niño season vs. an average season. Low was 2 (1982).
32.9 inAvg NYC snow after moderate El Niños, the snowiest group. Normal is about 30 in.
18.0 inAvg NYC snow after strong El Niños. Very strong: 21.8 in. Weak: 24.7 in.
Peak strength: WeakModerateStrongVery strong Tick mark on bars = normal (30 in snow, 100% precip)
Event Strengthpeak ONI, °C El Niño activeONI ≥ +0.5 Atlantic hurricanesthat season (storms) NYC snowfallfollowing winter NYC precipitationtotal during the event

How to read the hurricane column

Counts are for the Atlantic season in the year the El Niño was underway. Five events formed after the season's peak (flagged), so they had little chance to suppress storms. Two long events span two seasons and show both.

How to read the precipitation column

Total inches at Central Park across every month the ONI was at or above +0.5, compared with the 1991–2020 monthly normals for those same months. Older events look drier partly because today's normals run wetter.

Limits of this data

One station stands in for the whole Northeast; South Jersey and New England can differ a lot in the same winter. ONI records begin in 1950, so 1946–49 have no El Niño classification. Strength labels follow Golden Gate Weather Services' ONI table.